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Research

Statistical modelling under differential privacy constraints: a case study in fine-scale geographical analysis with Australian Bureau of Statistics TableBuilder data

Consistent with the principles of differential privacy protection, the Australian Bureau of Statistics artificially perturbs all count data from the Australian Census prior to its release to researchers through the TableBuilder platform. This perturbation involves the addition of random noise to every non-zero cell count followed by the suppression of small values to zero.

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Spatio-temporal spread of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia

Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially.

Research

Geospatial modelling for malaria risk stratification and intervention targeting for low-endemic countries

Ewan Punam Susan Tasmin Cameron Amratia Rumisha Symons BSc PhD PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Director of Malaria Risk Stratification Honorary Research

Research

A Maximum Entropy Model of the Distribution of Dengue Serotype in Mexico

Pathogen strain diversity is an important driver of the trajectory of epidemics. The role of bioclimatic factors on the spatial distribution of dengue virus serotypes has, however, not been previously studied. Hence, we developed municipality-scale environmental suitability maps for the four dengue virus serotypes using maximum entropy modeling.

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Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventions

Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach.

Research

WALLABY pre-pilot survey: Two dark clouds in the vicinity of NGC 1395

We present the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) WALLABY pre-pilot observations of two 'dark' H i sources (with H i masses of a few times 108 {M}_\odot and no known stellar counterpart) that reside within 363 kpc of NGC 1395, the most massive early-type galaxy in the Eridanus group of galaxies.

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Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures.

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Mapping the endemicity and seasonality of clinical malaria for intervention targeting in Haiti using routine case data

Towards the goal of malaria elimination on Hispaniola, the National Malaria Control Program of Haiti and its international partner organisations are conducting a campaign of interventions targeted to high-risk communities prioritised through evidence-based planning. Here we present a key piece of this planning: an up-to-date, fine-scale endemicity map and seasonality profile for Haiti informed by monthly case counts.

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Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika in eight districts in Tanzania

This study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors of chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in Tanzania.

Research

Malaria treatment for prevention: a modelling study of the impact of routine case management on malaria prevalence and burden

Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence.