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Vietnam, as one of the countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion, has committed to eliminating all malaria by 2030. Declining case numbers highlight the country's progress, but challenges including imported cases and pockets of residual transmission remain. To successfully eliminate malaria and to prevent reintroduction of malaria transmission, geostatistical modelling of vulnerability (importation rate) and receptivity (quantified by the reproduction number) of malaria is critical.
Eradication and elimination strategies for lymphatic filariasis (LF) primarily rely on multiple rounds of annual mass drug administration (MDA), but also may benefit from vector control interventions conducted by malaria vector control programs. We aim to examine the overlap in LF prevalence and malaria vector control to identify potential gaps in program coverage.
Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) with sub-national estimates are scarce in Ethiopia. We address this knowledge gap by spatially predicting the national, sub-national and local prevalence of TB, and identifying drivers of TB prevalence across the country.
Despite significant decline in the past two decades, malaria is still a major public health concern in Tanzania; with over 93% of the population still at risk. Community knowledge, attitudes and practices, and beliefs are key in enhancing uptake and utilization of malaria control interventions, but there is a lack of information on their contribution to effective control of the disease.
Geostatistical analysis of health data is increasingly used to model spatial variation in malaria prevalence, burden, and other metrics. Traditional inference methods for geostatistical modelling are notoriously computationally intensive, motivating the development of newer, approximate methods for geostatistical analysis or, more broadly, computational modelling of spatial processes.
In 2022, the World Health Organization extended their guidelines for perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) from infants to children up to 24 months old. However, evidence for PMC's public health impact is primarily limited to children under 15 months. Further research is needed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PMC, and the added benefit of further age-expansion. We integrated an individual-based model of malaria with pharmacological models of drug action to address these questions for PMC and a proposed age-expanded schedule (referred as PMC+, for children 03-36 months).
When models are used to inform decision-making, both their strengths and limitations must be considered. Using malaria as an example, we explain how and why models are limited and offer guidance for ensuring a model is well-suited for its intended purpose.
Bhutan has achieved a substantial reduction in both malaria morbidity and mortality over the last two decades and is aiming for malaria elimination certification in 2025. However, a significant percentage of malaria cases in Bhutan are imported (acquired in another country). The aim of the study was to understand how importation drives local malaria transmission in Bhutan.
In the context of high malaria burden yet limited resources, Guinea's national malaria programme adopted an innovative subnational tailoring approach, including engagement of stakeholders, data review, and data analytics, to update their malaria operational plan for 2024-2026 and identify the most appropriate interventions for each district considering the resources available.
Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence.